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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


428 
ABNT20 KNHC 110533
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Depression Fay, located inland over southeastern 
New York. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five 
days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay (AT1/AL062020)
...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 11
 the center of Fay was located near 42.4, -73.9
 with movement N at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110832
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020
 
...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay
was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 73.9 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28
km/h).  A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected today, tonight and Sunday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will continue to move 
across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across 
northwestern New England later today and over southeastern Canada 
tonight and Sunday.
  
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next day so, and the 
post-tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its
track from eastern New York into portions of New England.  This
rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur.  Widespread river
flooding is not expected; however, rapid rises on small streams and
isolated minor flooding is possible.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 


Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 110831
TCMAT1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N  73.9W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N  73.9W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N  74.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N  72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N  70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N  67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N  73.9W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110833
TCDAT1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for 
some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a 
post-tropical low pressure system.  The maximum sustained winds are 
estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters 
well to the southeast of the center.  Continued weakening is 
likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by 
late Sunday.

The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt.  Over 
the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a 
mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the 
Great Lakes until it loses its identity.

This is the last advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 42.4N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z 49.0N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1800Z 52.5N  67.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 


Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 110833
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Graphics



5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 08:35:02 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT


Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA
Issued at  1113 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY
Issued at  200 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the
development of a tropical depression in a few days while the system
moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
    ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 20.4, -118.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina

  • Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 118.3W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 118.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin soon and Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
    Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 08:34:33 GMT

    Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 09:31:48 GMT ]]>


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